Helen Barrington: With programs distributed exclusively via satellite, like Bob Edwards's new morning show--slated for October launch on XM [Satellite Radio], will there be a significant impact on public radio programming?

Dale Spear: From the standpoint of new audiences, growth will be slow, although there is certainly potential many years from now. A lot of capital has been invested in satellite radio, so we'll have to wait and see. XM and Sirius [Satellite Radio] have placed a very high value on music programming, so the primary challenge, in the near term, is to change people's listening habits. For listeners over 30, who have large recorded music collections, you're essentially asking people not to listen to them and instead subscribe and listen to music on satellite radio.

Recently, there has been some station concern that public radio listeners will switch to satellite radio. For the 30-plus set, I don't believe it's going to happen in large enough numbers to hurt public radio. Satellite radio subscription services (like Sirius and XM) will have to "get" younger audiences, teenagers and college-aged listeners, who don't have large music collections yet. They are downloading MP3s for their iPods. These young people are not listening to commercial radio because they're not finding what they like. They aren't single genre listeners, but more eclectic, and just looking for good songs.

In terms of damaging public radio's audience or future, I'm afraid we can do that all by ourselves. Public radio, to a degree, hasn't taken enough chances, which can make us sound stale. We're becoming a risk-averse system, in my opinion. We have to face the fact that what we produce must continue to evolve, become more interesting. There will be more competition in the future, not just from audio content suppliers, but [also] from all media. We can't sit back and say, "Well, our audience has gone up 50 percent since September 11, 2001 (source: RRC/Arbitron Nationwide Spring 2003)." We need to keep developing new content and programming to serve existing audiences and create new programming to grow a new listening base.

Barrington: What about "tuning in" on the Internet? Has this had a big impact on listening to stations?

Spear: Mostly for broadband listeners, because quality and delivery are so much better. And a large number of people have broadband at home. It essentially eliminates the buffering and dropouts common to listening via dial-up. But the single biggest challenge for Internet listening is it isn't portable...yet. You can listen at home and at work, but you can't "take it with you." Once there is reliable wireless Internet available in the car, I think we'll begin to lose audience due to fragmentation. Just think about it: streaming thousands of stations in your car. This, in my opinion, is much more of a threat to stations and to our audience than satellite radio, in the long run.

At some point, listeners will have options like TV viewers with TiVo: recording and listening later, not just when programs are broadcast. The technology exists, but is not readily available, nor simple to use. As it evolves and more become comfortable using it, things will change.

The good news for content developers and providers is the more outlets, the better. This serves our mission as public broadcasters, to reach the greatest numbers possible with our programming.

Barrington: How might formats on satellite stations impact programming on public radio stations?

Spear: I'm not sure there will be much impact on public radio from satellite. Internet radio stations/streams will much more finely tune their focus and appeal.

I think the example of cable television is instructive: the more outlets, the more TV became like radio. The more channels, the more formatted and specialized they became. With more channels, the content will become narrower. I think what we'll see are people using more channels than the five or so they use today. Overall time spent listening (TSL) to "radio" will not increase; time will just be split among more channels.

However, if the delivery system becomes agnostic--meaning receiving satellite channels, streaming Internet, and terrestrial broadcasts all in the same unit--people will experiment and terrestrial broadcasting will not remain the dominant radio player.

I don't anticipate shorter programs or segments becoming more popular because of satellite radio formats. Shorter form is difficult. Most stations don't have the programming vehicles into which they can insert non-local, acquired content.

Barrington: How do you see the future for independent radio producers, keeping these new delivery systems in mind?

Spear: These developments should positively impact independents. Assuming these new technologies take off, there will continue to be a need for content. In fact, as stations convert to digital, and if additional frequencies are developed, there will be a need for more material.

Barrington: Will independents continue to raise most of the funds to make programs? Might other revenue streams emerge from new delivery systems that could fund independently produced programming?

Spear: I'm afraid, at this point, I don't have an answer to that question.

Helen Barrington has been working in public radio for 15 years, in the United States and overseas. She's produced national programs for WGBH Radio and is an AIR mentor. Currently, she's working as an independent radio consultant and pursuing a Masters degree in conflict resolution. She can be reached by e-mail at grachtenpand@yahoo.com.