In September of 1999 at the PRPD in Memphis, the Loose Leaf Book Company radio series was introduced. The children's literature series was the first purely non- commercial project I'd ever attempted. A year earlier I had stuck my toe in the water with a weekly music show called The Putumayo World Music Hour--a hybrid designed for both commercial and public stations.

My career in national radio began in 1975 with a three-minute daily short-form feature for hippie rock stations called The News Blimp. For the next 24 years, I developed, directed, and produced literally thousands of successful programs for commercial stations.

We created programming for virtually every format, including sports, talk, Spanish-language, classical music, and easy listening. The most creatively satisfying were the long-running music series such as Flashback, Timothy White's Rock Stars, and The House of Blues Radio Hour with Dan Aykroyd.

Why would anyone with a successful career in commercial syndication want to start producing programs for pubradio? The Telecommunications Act of 1996 is why.

After Clear Channel and Infinity did their roll-up number on radio, the landscape changed dramatically. Gone were the mom-and-pop syndicators, the independent sales rep firms, and even the mighty networks. Almost every unaffiliated company was either gobbled up or run out of business.

Station owners cared only about cutting the cost of doing business and maintaining the cost-per-point for advertisers.

Even as commercial radio began eating its young--driving away intelligent, passionate program directors with a commitment to community--listeners still sought emotional connection with their local stations. Unable to find it on the middle or the right of the dial, listeners gravitated to pubradio in ever-increasing numbers.

By the turn of the century, only in public radio could you find PD's who 1) gave a damn about what they put on the air and 2) could make decisions without worrying about the impact on corporate stock prices.

The optimists kept saying the pendulum would swing. Well, maybe--just maybe--it's swing time.

In response to the marked loss of listeners, to their time spent listening, and to ad agencies' complaints about increased spot loads, Clear Channel has issued a company-wide edict instructing all stations to cut their maximum hourly spot-load to ten minutes beginning January 2005.

Of course, they're also raising rates 35 percent. But this move threatens the few remaining commercial syndicators. And here's why: the business model for syndication is simple and straightforward.

A local station carries a national program free of charge. The local station gives up a certain number of commercial minutes per hour. The syndicator keeps those commercial minutes. The syndicator then inserts commercials into the program and is paid according to the overall ratings--usually based on average quarter hours.

Fifteen percent comes off the top of the ad money as ad agency fees. Generally 20 percent comes off the remaining money as sales fees. What's left pays for production, marketing, distribution, and station affiliation. As a program gets more listeners, ad rates go up and so do profits.

Traditionally, a syndicated music hour contains 12 minutes of commercial time--six minutes for the syndicator and six minutes for the local station.

National shows now have a tough decision: 1) cut their hourly commercial inventory to ten minutes (five network, five local), a decrease of 17 percent of the program's revenue potential per hour; 2) find new affiliate stations in markets in which Clear Channel runs their program; or 3) fashion some custom-made version of the program for Clear Channel stations.

The same is the case for national talk shows--only worse. Talk hours routinely carry 16 to 18 minutes of spots.

This shake-up in syndication creates a potential opportunity for those program suppliers who have figured out how to work cost-effectively. AIR members are consummate professionals at creating great programming within confined budgets.

To get into the game successfully, job one is to provide stations with something they can't do themselves. Most stations in major markets have access to significant resources. So this is a real challenge. The House of Blues Radio Hour would not have existed for 12 years if Dan Aykroyd were not involved. A good idea is not enough. A show has to deliver something stations cannot do themselves.

Then, there has to be some value-added benefit beyond a good program. Little Steven Van Zandt's Underground Garage is an example of a recent success. By promising possible access to both Bruce Springsteen and The Sopranos, Steven is able to provide value above and beyond the program itself.

While there are similarities to pubradio syndication, there is less of a need to build consensus among decision-makers, and the bottom line is truly the bottom line--can stations make money from the program by selling their local time at a premium?

New programs, designed to carry a ten-minute spot-load, could look mighty appealing to our colleagues at Clear Channel. And we might just be able to sneak some quality programming back on the other end of the dial.

Ben Manilla is president of Ben Manilla Productions, Inc. of San Francisco. He is also a partner in Media Mechanics of Denver. He is pleased to take questions or offer advice at (415) 421-1220, ext. 12, or via e-mail: benm@bmpaudio.com.