I can't really profess to know much about the future of radio. It hasn't happened yet. But based on everything I've seen and heard, this is my big prediction: over the next five to ten years, national programming will gradually shift to satellite radio, while the programming on local stations will become more local. Internet radio is still a long way off, and will probably be much different than what we'd expect today.

    The term "public radio" could be thought of in two distinct ways: public radio the concept, and public radio the brand. "Public radio the concept" might be thought of as akin to public access television; alternative voices have access to the airwaves, wherein who has access is not determined by commercial viability, but what might be best for the good of the community. "Public radio the brand" is by and large defined by what we've come to know as "NPR": well produced programs for smart people. I believe there is a place and a need for both of these entities.

    In recent years, public radio the concept has really become what we now call community radio: college stations with DJ's playing alternative, classical, jazz, and world music. Maybe they'll have a locally produced news or public affairs program, or maybe they're a Pacifica affiliate. If a person is willing to put in the volunteer time and file their share of CD's back into the stacks, they could probably get their own show at, say, three in the morning.

    In the meantime, public radio the brand has been flourishing. The shows we hear on our local NPR affiliates are mostly nationally distributed and have high production standards. It's increasingly difficult for new programs to get on the air. What stays on the air is determined by what brings in the most pledge and underwriting dollars. Personally, I would consider the end result of this to be, for the most part, a good thing. I want to hear well produced radio. I want to hear national programming. But many feel that this model has flourished at the expense of local programming.

    Enter satellite radio. As receivers for this emerging technology become standard issue in new automobiles, more and more people will turn to satellite radio for their national programming. Most of your favorite public radio shows will be there waiting for you, with great reception, and on the same channel all across the country. The national nature of satellite radio will prevent any local programs from being distributed this way. For a local program, you'll simply turn on your radio the old fashioned way. Local stations will air mostly local programs. National programs will be heard via satellite.

    And what about internet radio? I think the first thing that has to happen before internet radio takes off is for people to get rid of the notion that you'll be listening while sitting at your computer logged on to the internet. I mean, who wants to turn on their computer to listen to the radio? When internet radio does happen, I think we'll see something that on the surface looks very similar to radio the way it is today, but with a more appropriate interface for the technology, and much better reception. And you'll be able to hear the news in Swahili. But my prediction is that until it becomes as easy as turning on your radio is today, mainstream acceptance will elude internet radio.

    And one last thing: if you want to hear well produced radio in the future, produce good radio today. We all decided to make a living in radio because the work of others showed us what radio is capable of creating, and the radio we are producing right now has that same potential to inspire greatness in others. Whether we listen on our transistor box, satellite receiver, or logged on to the internet, radio is only as good as what is coming out of the speaker.